US consumers see higher long-run inflation, rising delinquency risk

Americans said they expected higher inflation over the longer run last month, as their expectations of credit turbulence rose to the highest level since April 2020, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report on Tuesday.

While inflation a year from now is seen holding steady at 3%, three years from now it is seen at 2.7% from August’s 2.5% estimate, and at 2.9% in five years, from 2.8% in the August survey, the bank said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Meanwhile, while perceptions and expectations for credit access improved, the report found that expected credit delinquency rates continued to rise and hit the highest level in over four years. The report noted the average expected probability of missing a debt payment over the next three months rose for a fourth straight month to 14.2%, from August’s 13.6%, suggesting some Americans are facing increased issues with managing their borrowing.

 

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