Retail sales rise significantly in January, supporting Fed’s March liftoff prediction

Total retail sales rose by 3.8 percent in January, following a decline of 2.5 percent in December and a 0.7 percent increase in November. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long analyzed the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.

“Retail sales heated back up to a 10-month high in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis,” stated Long. “It is important to note that retail sales are reported on a nominal basis, so some of the gains in recent months simply reflect rapidly rising prices rather than increases in quality or quantity.”

Many sectors were winners in January, the biggest being nonstore retailers (+14.5 percent), furniture and home fixture stores (+7.2 percent), as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers (+5.7 percent). Losses hit several sectors during the month including sales at sporting goods and hobby stores which fell by 3 percent, followed by gasoline stations (-1.3 percent) and food services & drinking places (-0.9 percent).

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