Kebede updates economic forecast, looks through end of 2021

by CUNA News

CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede gives an update to the previous June forecast in this month’s Economic Update video, as well as examines some key figures heading into the fourth quarter of 2021.

His discussion also includes a look look at consumer demand and its effects on economic growth and inflation; the unemployment rate to end of 2021 and beyond; and the historic low charge-off rate in the second quarter.

Main changes to the previous June Forecast include the following:

  • The economy is expected to grow 6.0% in 2021, revised down from 6.5% in the previous forecast. Inflation is expected to increase 5.5% in 2021 (compared to 3.0% in our previous forecast) due to heightened consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.The unemployment rate will improve slightly in 2021 and fall to 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous forecast. The 10-year treasury yield was revised down by 0.5 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, to 1.5% and 2.0%, respectively.

 

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