Kamala vs. Trump: The election matters less than you think

Every four years, we’re told that ‘this’ election is the most important of our generation. It’s easy to understand this approach, after all, what better way to achieve the noble goal of ‘getting out the vote’ than to use fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to drive people to the polls. Admittedly, because humans have very little capacity for meaningful integration of historical knowledge into their present-day actions, this 200 year old tactic is still popular, and likely effective.

You hear it on every news outlet, you see it across social media, and political pundits won’t let you forget it. In 2024, it’s no different. On one side, you have Kamala Harris, the torchbearer of extreme socialism, here to transform America into a state-run utopia—if you believe the headlines. On the other side, there’s Donald Trump, champion of white privilege and mastermind behind the January 6th “insurrection”—at least according to his critics.

It’s all noise, a shell game designed to keep you focused on drama instead of data. The reality is, while political leaders come and go, the transformative forces that truly shape our world often unfold quietly, under the radar. In this case, while you’re watching the political fireworks, something far more profound is happening—a black swan event a decade in the making—and it’s one that financial leaders are perennially missing.

What on Earth is a black swan event?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his work The Black Swan, describes these events as “unpredictable, high-impact occurrences that seem obvious in hindsight”. They have the power to transform industries and societies, often catching leaders, and everyone else, off guard. You know, like how Netflix impacted Blockbuster’s business model…

In antiquity, it was thought that that all swans were white, largely due to the simple geographical limitations of those who were observing and cataloging bird populations. This belief was held in Europe and surrounding territories for hundreds of years, until explorer Willem de Vlamingh encountered swans with dark plumage in Australia. The ‘black swan’ describes the reality that just because something has not happened does not mean that it cannot occur in the future.

​Taleb’s further unpacks the concept of scalability, where certain phenomena grow exponentially with minimal extra effort, coupled with an understanding of the fragility of any given belief system, perfectly applies to technological revolutions like the rise of the internet or decentralized currencies like Bitcoin​.

Bitcoin: The black swan of our time

Today, we are witnessing another black swan event in real time, though many financial institution leaders are still obstinately oblivious to it. Bitcoin, and the broader world of cryptocurrency, is not-so-quietly reshaping the foundation of how value is stored and transferred. Major institutions, such as BlackRock, have recognized this shift, with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF launch becoming the most successful ETF launch in history, managing over $21 billion shortly after its debut​. This institutional validation highlights the exponential growth and increasing mainstream acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class.

Just as Bitcoin’s disruptive potential is underestimated today, the rise of the internet and e-commerce faced similar skepticism in the early 2000s. Traditional banks were slow to adapt to digital banking and online transactions, missing early opportunities seized by fintech disruptors like PayPal​. PayPal’s success was a wake-up call, signaling that the financial world was changing, but by then, many institutions were already behind the curve.

The emergence of mobile payment platforms like Venmo also caught many banks off guard. Venmo’s peer-to-peer payment model reshaped consumer expectations for financial services, proving that convenience and speed were key drivers of adoption—something that also seems extraordinarily obvious in hindsight.

By the time traditional institutions reacted, fintech companies had already captured a significant market share, a scenario that’s eerily similar to the current state of Bitcoin adoption.

Cutting through the noise and nonsense

As we inch closer to the 2024 election, credit union leaders are likely glued to the news, concerned about potential shifts in regulation, tax policy, or market conditions depending on who wins. But here’s the thing: no matter who ends up in the White House—whether it’s Kamala Harris, ushering in her supposed socialist agenda, or Donald Trump, leading another populist revolt—the larger forces reshaping the financial industry will march forward regardless.

As financial leaders, it’s your responsibility to rise above the noise. Yes, the 2024 election will be significant, as are most presidential elections, but it pales in comparison to the longer-term technological shifts which are already underway. The black swan event is here, and it’s called Bitcoin.

If your institution isn’t actively considering how Bitcoin custody, blockchain integration, or decentralized finance fits into your future strategy, you’re already behind. The window for early adoption is closing, and those who wait much longer will find themselves out of time.

The good news is that there are innovators in the industry who have already started to pave the way for native, core-centric crypto custody and blockchain integration. When you’re ready to drown out the election noise and focus on building responsible, sustainable, future-ready digital products and financial services, call the technologists and Bitcoin early-adopters at DaLand to get the conversation started.