How are banking industry experts handicapping the impact of the election?
Whichever party wins the White House, the outcome will be a mixed bag for the banking industry. While a Harris win will likely mean more of the same, Trump will be a wild card. And the calculus also depends on which party wins the House and Senate. Meanwhile key Supreme Court decisions have reformed the regulatory playing field.
As Election Day approaches, one thing is sure for the banking industry: Either way, a new administration will be taking over the White House. And experts say that even a change of party in the White House will be just one piece of a complicated Washington formula for the industry.
The consensus is that regulatory change for the financial services business will at most be incremental, at least at first, after the election rhetoric is over. However, how regulations develop may evolve considerably in the wake of Supreme Court decisions made in 2024.
Experts also predict that legal challenges by the banking industry to new and existing rules will pick up significantly. Signs of this are already apparent, including such moves as JPMorgan Chase’s saber-rattling over the threat of action by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“The Firm is evaluating next steps, including litigation,” it stated in a securities filing); the Financial Technology Association’s new lawsuit against the CFPB’s interpretive rule governing pay-in-four buy now, pay later services; and the lawsuit, also against CFPB, over its final open banking rule. That suit was filed by the Bank Policy Institute and the Kentucky Bankers Association.
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